[MUD-Dev] Online Games Fighting Terrorism

[amanda at alfar.com]

Raph Koster <rkoster at soe.sony.com> wrote:

> The thing that scares me, personally, is that it won't be
> implausible NEXT time around. The content bar is growing ever
> higher. The base-level features required for a commercial online
> world to be competitive is growing rapidly--housing and robust
> crafting having been added to it, and more soon to come. The
> technical bar is also climbing rapidly. What used to be one 64x64
> texture a couple of years ago is now a 256x256 texture plus a
> normal map plus alpha plus whatever other fancy things shaders
> permit these days, PLUS the shader itself, which requires a
> programmer to write. We are heading straight for movie-sized
> budgets, with no commensurate growth in audience.

Indeed.  This may not be a bad thing, though.  For example, we've
already reached the point where it can be more economical to buy
than build (3D rendering engines, for example).  We may well reach
the point where it's not feasible to build a new game's
infrastructure from the ground up any more.  Rendering and scene
graph management has already split off.  How about networking (both
server-client and within a server cluster), state management, and so
on.  I think this all makes for great opportunities for
standardization of already-solved problems, simply because no one
will have the luxury of writing their own database replication code,
field of interest management, billing and accounting, etc.  People
that like to tweak such things can specialize in them, and people
who like to tweak content can specialize in that.  I view this as a
sign of impending maturity, not of impending doom, though it may
take a couple of expensive examples to really drive the lesson home.
Too many game developers still try to boil the ocean as part of
their business plan, IMO.

> Games which don't have these things are going to be a tougher and
> tougher sell. It's really rather disturbing, given that the entry
> cost is climbing so high, and the break-even line for subscription
> figures is also so high.

Sure.  Then again, it depends on the type of game, just as in the
movie industry it depends a lot on the type of movie.  Some very
popular movies have been shot on back lots with stock sets--not
every movie involves creating an entirely new universe.  Not every
game has to, either.

> Nichification is definitely coming with further games, but at the
> current economics of the biz, it won't help that much, given that
> a from-scratch competitive product is going to require a pretty
> large niche.

I think that the time is coming when a from-scratch product won't be
competitive, simply because there won't be enough time to reinvent
enough wheels.

Let's say I was designing a game today.  I wouldn't even consider
writing my own 3D engine or database management back end, and I'd
really rather buy more of the middleware if I could manage it.  I
want to spend my development capital on what makes my game
*different*, not on all things that are basically the same as other
games.  The marketplace doesn't care whether I write my own renderer
or buy NetImmerse orr Renderware.  It doesn't care if I wrote a
really nifty object management system.  It cares if the game is
playable and engaging.  Effort is irrelevant--the end result is what
people buy.  Yes, perhaps I could do better than the middleware--but
I can't do better than it in zero time.

> Tightly focused products are failing to get much above 50,000
> subs, and I doubt that's viable for companies who are having to
> develop their technology from scratch. Maybe middleware can
> alleviate that huge cost, but most middleware takes massive rework
> before it works within a given project...

Middleware has some maturing to do as well, but it'll get there--too
much demand.  And as it does, it'll be more feasible to design
around the middleware from the start.  Filmmakers design around film
stocks and cameras, software developers design around compilers and
source code control systems ...

I tell you, though, I'd hate to be trying to breathe more life into
an existing game right now.  Must be a very tough spot at the
moment.


Amanda Walker

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