[MUD-Dev] business models

[Jon Morrow]

> -----Original Message-----
> From: mud-dev-admin at kanga.nu [mailto:mud-dev-admin at kanga.nu]On Behalf Of
> Matt Mihaly
> Sent: Monday, May 21, 2001 4:28 AM
> To: mud-dev at kanga.nu
> Subject: [MUD-Dev] business models

> I sat down tonight (actually for the first time ever, believe it or
> not), and tried to see if Achaea's 'retail' business model was
> making more than the $10/month model. The difficulty involved is
> two-fold:
 
>   1) When someone asks Verant how many customers Everquest has at
>   any one time, the answer is pretty easy, at least if you exclude
>   box sales. If you ask us, it's a lot harder. A lot of players do
>   nothing but cost us money via admin time and bandwidth. On the
>   other hand, some players spend thousands a year. But how do you
>   say you have <x> customers in a way which can be meaningfully
>   compared with a service contract business like the $10/month game?
 
>   2) Most of the $10/month models allow multiple characters. We do
>   too, but a second character costs just as much as the first
>   one. This presents difficulties because the only method we can
>   think of to estimate how many subscribers we'd have if we were
>   monthly is to base it off of the rule of thumb that says that the
>   players online represent 15% of your total player base (this
>   estimation given by the $10/month people).

> I don't want to give our usage figures, because that will allow
> someone to deduct our revenue, but using the 15% rule off our
> average # of players online, I come to the conclusion that our
> business model currently makes us a bit over $30/customer, NOT
> counting the fact that these calculations are based on characters
> not people, and that if we based it on people, the number would be
> higher (as our big spenders tend to spend big on multiple
> characters).

> That's not chest-pounding (though I'm proud of it of course). It's
> just meant to be informational.

Which game(s) does the 15% figure come from?  Or is it a commonly
accepted figure?  I only ask because I'm in the process of projecting
the number of users online at a time for my current project, and the
number needs to be as accurate as possible.  If there are any other
more accurate ways of estimating, I'd love to hear about them.

Also, to challenge 15%, doesn't GemStone III have a total player base
of about 60,000 on their regular server?  I heard that number about a
year ago, but I don't remember who it was from, so it might not be
reputable.  They generally have 800-1200 players on at a time these
days.

-Jon

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